Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Why the last 8 years have been wasted...

The subprime mortgage mess is really a symptom of a number of issues.

First: Borrowers took out loans they could not afford, most banking on an improvement in the economy and in their wages.

Second: Lenders created too many novel and highly risky loans to increase their sales.

Third: Our current administration took us into a war with the expectation that a war would help stabilize economy, but it didn't.

Here's the rub: Without infrastructure spending, like we had during the New Deal, job improvement and job growth depends entirely upon business creating jobs.

Business began outsourcing to maximize profit, rather than creating jobs here, so borrowers made a bad bet, but business also took their money and ran overseas. Loyalty anyone?

Further, lenders bear responsibility for their greed. They encouraged borrowers to cash out equity that basically eliminated any residual wealth borrowers had built. Now, there's no cushion for the vast majority of home owners and without another reservoir of ready capital, consumer spending has dropped and will continue to do so, making the economy worse.

Lastly, the Great Depression ended for two general reasons. Infrastructure spending (that our current administration did not advocate) and a war (that our current administration encouraged). What we learned from this go around is that war, by itself, will not turn an economy around. War, must be married to infrastructure spending.

Unless we have an administration that wisely spends money domestically to encourage actual growth, then things will only get worse before they get better.

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